Elder Statesman
In late August the National Aeronautic Association, wrote to Balloon Life, “It gives me great pleasure to inform you that Karl Stefan, whom you nominated, has been selected to receive one of the National Aeronautic Association’s most prestigious and distinguished recognitions, the Elder Statesman of Aviation Award. Selection was made [in mid August] by a 26-person committee drawn from virtually all segments of aviation.”
The award was established in 1954 to honor outstanding Americans who, by their efforts over a period of years, have made contributions of significant value to aeronautics, and who have reflected credit upon America and themselves. Each year the NAA solicits nominations and convenes a distinguished committee of august aviation leaders from all segments of the aerospace community to choose worthy recipients.
An award ceremony will be held on October 22 in Washington, DC at a noon luncheon sponsored by the Aero Club of Washington. This luncheon will be held at the Captial Hilton, located at 16th and K St., NW.
This is the third year in a row that Balloon Life has had the pleasure of nominating an Elder Statesman honoree. I am pleased to add, that this year Balloon Life joined with the Balloon Federation of America in promoting Mr. Stefan’s nomination.
Our congratulations go to all of this year’s honorees. For more on Karl Stefan see Preflight and Balloonmeister.
Dry Thunderstorms
In August I traveled to several balloon events in other parts of the country. At one evening briefing the meteorologist reported that the surrounding weather contained only dry thunderstorms. His definition—rain coming from the cumulonimbus clouds would evaporate before reaching the ground, or virga—also known as unstable air.
At the other event we were told one evening that the line of thunderstorms nearby was moving away.
In both cases the planned flights were cancelled because the cumulonimbus clouds continued to build in the area. The meteorologists in both cases relied heavily on radar images to make their determinations.
While modern technology gives us far better information than ever before, what I find disturbing about these situations is that the meteorologists relied solely on real time computer technology. In the July/August issue of FAA Aviation News is an article on thunderstorms and their associated hazards—Feather Canyons? The article points out that, “…we can watch storms progress through their life cycle, but all the technology aside, it remains true that a storm’s outward appearance—which is what is most often presented to our pilots’ eye—can in no way correlate the amount of rain, turbulence, etc., within the storm. Prediction, as always, is still an inexact science.”
In both cases I asked the meteorologists if they had the Lifted and K Indexes. These two seldom used measures of stability and moisture content can be excellent predictors of potential thunderstorm activity. In neither case did they know or even care to find out.
Thunderstorms can develop and build very quickly. Just because the cumulonimbus wasn’t on the radar screen 15 minutes ago doesn’t mean it will not develop in the air 15 minutes from now.
Balloon pilots at events are due a greater care in the weather information provided to them. If the stability index shows a high probability of thunderstorm development then the balloons should not fly, even if no thunderstorms develop during the flight period. Getting away with a flight because a thunderstorm didn’t develop, or a line of thunderstorms is moving away, is risky business. Ask the insurance companies about all the claims they have paid out because a commercial ride operator pushed his/her weather one to many times.
Maybe pilots would receive better weather information and decisions if the meteorologist and event director were required to fly in the same marginal conditions that they suggest pilots fly in.
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