Dry Thunderstorms
Editor: I enjoyed your editorial in Balloon Life, September 1996, on balloon meteorologists. I advertised in your magazine for 3 months offering to be a balloon meteorologist at balloon festivals and I got zero calls. I am glad that you have finally experienced a weather briefer or a TV meteorologist working at a festival. K index and lifted indices are easy to find on the Internet up to 48 hours in advance. Weather radar and satellite pictures are handy for timing but the true meteorologist relies on the NGM and LFM, x-t soundings and actual weather, before looking at the radar. Lucky you didn’t fly with virga present. When precipitation falls from great heights and evaporates, cold pockets of air form, resulting in microbursts.
John Lade
Meteorologist
Oshawa, Ontario
Editor: Your complaints regarding inadequate analysis by meteorologists attempting to forecast thunderstorms (Dry Thunderstorms, Balloon Life, September 1996, p 4) is to be applauded. I would extend your complaints and, in addition, suggest that critical forecasts always be made from timely, local, upper-air soundings. As you say, “Balloon pilots at events are due a greater care in the weather information provided to them.”
The stability indexes you asked for—the Lifted and the K—can, of course, be used to estimate thunderstorm potential. But why take risks with simple indexes? Presumably their real value is in making it possible for a busy forecaster to evaluate. quickly, upper- air data from many locations to estimate thunderstorm potential for a large area. For a critical local forecast, one should make a complete thermodynamic analysis of an appropriate sounding.
Obtaining an appropriate sounding, however, may be a bigger problem. The National Weather Service’s schedule of only two soundings a day (0000Z and 1200Z) makes their timeliness for balloon events variable across the country. Their spatial distributions (about two per state) can be equally disadvantageous. As with most weather forecasts, the adequacy of any set of observations depends importantly on the meteorology at the time.
The obvious resolution of this difficulty is to make the necessary soundings at locations and times set by the analyst-forecaster. A Colorado company advertises a portable GPS upper-air sounding system that would appear to be ideal for balloon events. Such a system could provide not only the required local and timely data for thunderstorm prediction but also data particularly useful for delineating the nocturnal low-level jet and associated temperature structure. The latter are often required for reliable forecasts of morning increases in wind speeds at the ground.
Some may consider the price of such a sounding system, around $60,000, as prohibitive. It should be considered, however, in terms of its useful lifetime (possibly 10 years or more), its use at several events in a year, and above all, the lives it might save.
Don Portman
Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science
University of Michigan
Reno Whopper
Editor: In regards to the Balloon Life October, 1996 article concerning this year’s Great Reno Balloon Race I must point out a factual mistake in the story. While congratulations are in order for Steve Wilkinson’s win at the Reno event, it should be noted that his achievement is not the first time that a special shape has ever won first place in this event. The first special shape to win the Great Reno Balloon Race was the Burger King Whopper in 1990. I know, I was the pilot. Not only did I win the event, I blew away the competition with a second place finish on Friday, a first place finish on Saturday, (a dead center drop), and a fourth place finish on Sunday for an overall First place. Also that year, Drew Roznowski flying the Ray-O-Vac special shape battery won the key grab on Sunday and finished third overall! So congratulations Steve, but I was there first.
Mark Johnson
Burger King Whopper
Phoenix, Arizona
Fly A Flag For Justice
Editor: I would like to personally thank everyone that flew a black flag on their crown line at Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta this year. If there is anyone else that would like to fly a black flag on your crown line in memory of Alan Fraenckel and John Stuart-Jervis please contact me as I have more flags available and would like to keep the memory alive of two pilots who loved ballooning! Please call me at 314-427- 8298 or email me at: skyangel@stlmo.com.
Tina Reeves
St. Louis, Missouri