Balloon Life,January 2000

16

In the January 1990 issue Balloon Life
presented some thoughts on what the next
ten years would hold for ballooning. Be-
low is a review of those predictions.

Growth
Ten year’s agoBalloon Life estimated
that the net annualgrowthinballooning
for the late 1980s was approximately ten
percentayear,downdramaticallyfrom
the explosive expansion in the late 1970’s
and early 1980’s.Balloon Life forecasted
that people entering the sport of balloon-
ingwho do so more for funand competi-
tion, rather than for commercial gain such
as balloonride business.
AFederalAviationAdministration
forecast ofaviation activity for the1990’s
said that ballooningwould decrease dur-
ingthe decade.
Indeed, the sport peakedinthe mid-
1990’sandhasbeen ona steadydecline
since. That decline is most visibly viewed
by the number of newballoons being sold
byballoonmanufacturers. In1989Bal-
loon Life reportedthat balloonmanufac-
turers delivered 363 new balloons. In 1998
that total wasdown to 216 new balloons.
The number of clubs and members of
localandnationalballoon clubsalsode-
clinedsignificantlyduringthepastde-
cade.

Regulations
Balloon Life wrote ten years ago that
“Changesin regulations during the com-
ing decade will cause the sport to become
moreprofessional in training,flying, busi-
ness, andevents.”
The major regulatory impact on bal-
looningduringthe1990’swastheex-
pected revision of Federal Aviation Regu-
lationPart 61. Initiallythe BalloonFed-
erationof America requested the FAA to
add an instructor ratingfor ballooning in
the revised FAR. That rating was included

inthe Noticeof ProposedRule Making.
By then the majorityof the balloon com-
munityandtheBFA hadchangedtheir
mindandralliedtorequestthatsucha
rating be removed. The final rule for Part
61 did not contain the instructor rating for
ballooning.
Thatvictorynotwithstanding,the
FAAmadeanumberof changestothe
Practical Test Standards for bothprivate
and commercial ratings. The changes for
thecommercialratingincludedgreater
emphasis on an applicant’s ability to teach.
Event guidelines found in the FAA’s
InspectorHandbook,establishedinthe
mid-1980’s, have remained relatively un-
changed. However, in the late 1990’s bal-
loonistsinsouthernCalifornia have had
problems with an FAA inspector who has
made unusual interpretations of the hand-
bookandcausedchangesinthe normal
conductofbusinessofeventsinthatre-
gion. In part, it has effected who can fly in
theballoonandotherpaperworkhead-
aches.
Landownerrelationshavealways
beena majorconcernfor thesport. Ten
years ago I predicted that the sport would
see“moreanti-ballooninglegislationin
various areas of the country.” Thatregu-
lationdidnothappen,inlargepartbe-
cause of the pro-active landowner regula-
tion programs by local clubs. I am pleased
toreportthatmyforecastof“insome
areas[balloonists]willhavetogotoa
designated area to fly, much like off-road
recreationalvehicles,”wasneveranis-
sue.

Technology
Ten years agoBalloon Life predicted
that new ceramic burners, new non-con-
ductive propane tanks, electrical compo-
nents,andthepossibilityofanewun-
heard of fabric might appear by the year
2000.

Burnershavebecomealittlemore
powerfulanddefinitelyquieter.Fabric
hasseensomeminorimprovementsin
longevity.Titanium tanksbecame avail-
able. New instruments can now provide a
great deal more data andbe downloaded
intoapersonalcomputer.GlobalPosi-
tioningSystemshavemadethechase
easier and brought a new element to com-
petition.Especiallylinkedtocomputers
withmoving mapsoftware.
Noneof thatiswhatI hadinmind
whenIsuggestednewstuffwasonthe
way.Imademypredictionsbasedon
conversations with people in the industry
whowereactivelyinvolvedinprojects.
Those endeavors never came to fruition.

BalloonManufactures
“Overthe next ten years expect to see
at least four current balloonmanufactur-
ersgooutofbusinessormergewith
another company. There will be no more
thansevenballoonmanufacturersinthe
year2000. Some of the survivors donot
existtoday.Expectthenumberofbal-
loons to increase from 4,000-4,500 today
to12,000-15,000by the year 2000.”
IntheApril1990BalloonBuyer’s
Guide nineballoonmanufacturerswere
listed. Of those only Thunder & Colt is no
longer anindependent company, having
been acquired by Cameron Balloons. To-
day there are 13 active balloonmanufac-
turersthatofferUSTypeCertificated
balloon systems.
The number of active, airworthy bal-
loonshas decreased over the decade.
The onlypartofthepredictionthat
was correct involved new manufacturers.

BalloonEvents
“Balloon events will have the great-
est impact on the sport over the ten years...
These events give the sport a great deal of
exposure.Althoughexposureitselfis

How We Did

By The Year 2000, a look back at our predictions

by Tom Hamilton

17

Balloon Life,January2000

importantit ismoney that will have a real
impact. Prize money that is. With larger
and larger cash prizes more attentionwill
bepaidtothe sport bythe general public.”
Money indeed had an impact on bal-
looning, butnot a positiveone. A number
of high profile bankruptcies by balloon
event organizers, who offered large prize
funds, pot marked the decade. The close
of the decade saw a major divisionin the
sport overcontrol ofmoney when the
BFAand itscompetitiondivisionbecame
embroiled in a fight.

The Future?
In future issuesBalloon Life will bring
you the thoughts of industry leaders as to
whatthey thinkthe nextten years might
holdfor the sport of ballooning.